Synopsis: After a rather long wait, an active Monsoon pattern is expected to play out over the next few days. Looking at the big picture, the Monsoon ridge is centered over the Four Corners region promoting deep E/SE steering flow and a healthy surge of moisture into AZ. Expect a return to daily higher terrain storms with activity trying to move W/NW onto the lower deserts into the evenings/overnight. Gusty outflow winds/blowing dust are likely along with possible localized areas of heavy rain should any storms survive as the move into the greater Phoenix Valley.
For today plan on partly sunny skies into this afternoon before increasing storms chances later today. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 107˚F-109˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will generally hover in the 5-10mph range before localized gusty conditions into this evening. The general evolution of storms into tonight is discussed above. Any stronger storms that form will be capable of damaging wind gusts, blowing dust, and brief heavy rainfall. Conditions will be monitored closely through the remainder of the day.
For tomorrow plan on a cloudier start to the day with lingering clouds/light showers from overnight convection. Daytime highs will warm into the 105˚F-107˚F range around the Valley under sunnier afternoon conditions. Storm chances will be similar to today’s. Gusty winds, blowing dust, and localized heavy rain will remain the primary threats with any storms that form. Heading into Wednesday, we’re expecting a downtrend in activity, but will need to see how the pattern evolves over the next 48hrs. More on this tomorrow.