Synopsis: A low to moderate grade Monsoon pattern will persist through the work week. Looking at the big picture, high pressure remains in place across the lower Great Basin, promoting east/northeasterly steering flow and substantial moisture remains in place across most of the state. This setup will try and bring higher terrain activity SW into the lower deserts, though instability is lacking and may preclude a more active evening. Regardless, any storms that are able to form would be capable of heavy rainfall and pose a localized flooding threat. This pattern looks to continue through mid-week before drier conditions and warmer temperatures arrive late week.
For today plan on partly to mostly sunny skies across the Valley as afternoon temperatures warm into the 100˚F-103˚F range. Variable winds in the 5-10mph range may give way to increased gusts from evening outflow boundaries moving into the County. Scattered t-storms are expected to develop across the Rim over the next few hours before trying to move SW into the lower deserts this evening. We’re expecting most of this activity to fall apart with only localized gusty conditions and spotty rain chances. Conditions will be monitored closely throughout the day.
For tomorrow plan on a near repeat of today with afternoon sun following morning debris cloudiness. Daytime highs will climb a few degrees into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley. The storm setup will remain the same with Rim to Valley steering flow. Valley storm/rain chances will depend on instability and lift from colliding afternoon/evening outflow boundaries. Overall storm chances should be similar Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Moving ahead, moisture values will slowly begin to decline later in the week which should allow temperatures to rise back up towards seasonable normals. More details tomorrow.